Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Commodity Prices, Commodity Currencies, and Global Economic Developments
In this paper, we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naïve statistical benchmarks. We revisit how well changes in commodity currencies perform as potential efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent literature. In addition, we consider different types of factor-augmented models that use information from a larg...
متن کاملEconomic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment
Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t-1 and t-2. I argue that this finding is driven by a positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t-2. If lower r...
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To determine the effect of economic shocks on civil conflict, the empirical approach must be tailored to the shocks’ persistence. I illustrate this point by revisiting Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004). MSS argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase the probability of civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa over the 1979-1999 period. I find MSS’s approach and concl...
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Previous work by Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, addressed the question of whether poor economic performance has a causal effect on civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Using year-to-year rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth, MSS (2004) find that economic growth is strongly, negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of 5...
متن کاملEconomic Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Foreign Interest Rate Movements
We exploit annual variation in influential foreign interest rates to identify externally-driven components of short-run income shocks in small open economies from 1971-2004 and explore the statistical nature of the income-civil conflict nexus. Our results show that movements in foreign interest rates have important effects on civil conflict risk through domestic economic channels. More importan...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
سال: 2014
ISSN: 1945-7707,1945-7715
DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.4.1